Domain Traffic Predicts Google Result

Domain Traffic Predicts Google Result

I’ve been wanting to write this article for a while now but I’ve been flat out building a new ParkLogic system. Back on the 12th of October I wrote an article on the fact that I believed that domains could be used to predict a large chunk of Google’s quarterly results. Guess what! I was right!

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For those of you that would like to read the previous articles these can be found at:

The Percentage of Advertising Revenues Google Pays Domainsers

Predicting Google's Quarterly Domainer Payout

In my analysis, I predicted Google’s Traffic Acquisition Cost to Network Members (of which the domain channel is a part) would be flat for Q3. I even presented the following chart predicting this number.

Prediction of Google Results

After reviewing the results presented by the Google quarterly earnings report the actual Traffic Acquisition Cost moved from 21.1% to 21.3% (ie. almost flat). This number can be seen in the below chart from the Google quarterly earnings announcement.

Google Results

What this suggests is domain data can potentially be used as a predictor of a major part of Google’s earnings PRIOR to any announcements that they may make to the market.

A word of caution. Since Google’s results are in the billions and slight perturbations in some of the numbers used to calculate the result may result in a large swing in the prediction. With any luck, I can deal with most of these factors but more time is required to determine whether the prophetic nature of domain traffic can be consistently and accurately applied to Google’s earnings call prior to the call itself.

So don’t speed-dial your broker as yet and remember that this series of articles is as much about proving how valuable domain traffic is as about playing the stock market!

Lieberman and Greenberg

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Saturday Musings – The Secret Power of Entrepreneurs

Saturday Musings – The Secret Power of Entrepreneurs

I’ve been an entrepreneur all my life. I started my first business when I was sixteen years old and now thirty-four years later I’m still at it. Along this journey, I’ve learned a number of things about being an entrepreneur and the very first of them is the power you have in making decisions.

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Sadly, I’ve found that many people opt out of making decisions and they effectively let the world make them for them. They make the trade-off between financial security and doing that thing they dream of always pursuing. As the year’s tumble by and their obligations creep upwards the dream becomes ever more elusive.

The gap between them taking the leap of faith is actually within their hands but the terror of wondering if something went wrong halts them from taking the first step. I often wonder what is more terrifying? Failing in the pursuit of a dream or living with the regret of never tried.

I’m not advocating “leaping where angels fear to tread” but some people just need to make the decision to go for it! Get good sound advice, do everything you can to minimise the downside and work like the blazes at your dream.

If you find that it was a bit of a “pipe dream” then don’t blindly continue down the road of ruin but make another decision to pivot your business into an avenue that looks more promising. Too many people follow a business plan to the absolute letter rather than treating it as a living breathing entity that changes as you learn more about your service offering, customers, suppliers, and products.

The secret power of an entrepreneur is they can decide the direction for their company. It all hinges on whether they have the gumption to face reality and plot a new course. This is sometimes a little disheartening and it can be a little embarrassing sharing with your friends a change in direction…..but then again you are responsible for your own destiny and there is nothing more liberating than that!

I recently went to the bank (a very frustrating experience) where they were offering me a better deal on some of their products. Everything was going well in the conversation until I informed them that I was self-employed. Suddenly they wanted all sorts of paperwork, accounts, and whatnot before they would move on anything.

I’ve been through this process many times before and it drives me crazy. I said to the manager, I have more job security than you do. She looked blankly back at me, not comprehending what I was saying.

I said, for over thirty years I’ve managed to build a number of successful businesses and I’ve proven that I know how to make money. What you don’t know is that there has just been a decision by the banks board to shed 10% of the work force and that you are one of them. So now who has more control over their financial wellbeing? I looked on as comprehension dawned in her expression. She got my point.

When you make a decision to follow your dream you are in the driver’s seat. Assuming you are building a successful venture no one can fire you, tell you to stay back late or deny your planned vacation. What you will discover is that running your own business is the first decision that will spawn a daily litany of decisions. The power is in your hands…..be the entrepreneur you’ve always dreamed you could be.

Have a great weekend!

Greenberg and Lieberman

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Interview with Stevan Lieberman

Interview with Stevan Lieberman

Stevan Lieberman is well known to the domain industry in his capacity as an intellectual property lawyer. What not many people know is he is also an investor and entrepreneur.

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In this interview Stevan shares about some of his investments and the progress he is making with his latest business - Digital Candy. I hope you enjoy watching the video as much as both Stevan and I did sharing from one side of the world to another.

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Personal Musings - Being Generous...

Personal Musings - Being Generous...

It’s that time of year, where the tree is trimmed and Christmas is in every shop window enticing us to buy, Buy, BUY! Despite the commercialisation of Christmas there is an underpinning of good-will and generosity that permeates the air. So what is generosity and why is it so important?

For a start, people often view generosity as something that involves money. This is only one of the facets of generosity and depending upon your circumstances it is often the easiest one to enact. There is no reason you can’t be generous with your time, your attention, or your love. Generosity is more of an attitude of life rather than doing something at a point in time.

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For example, there is nothing worse than talking to someone that is constantly looking at their phone. They are being a miser with their attention as they constantly tell you that someone else is more important than you are. It’s also just plain rude.

If a person is to be generous then it must be an act of free will. This seems obvious but have you ever been to a restaurant with someone where they’ve waited for you to pick up the tab? They’ve essentially stolen the joy of being generous by manipulating the situation for you to pay…..not cool.

A generous person also needs to be wealthy in what they are being generous with. If you’re time poor then you’re unlikely to be generous with your time…..you just can’t afford it. You may need to ask yourself why you are a pauper in that area of your life and work on how you can bring some flexibility to your schedule that allows you to become time rich.

So many people claim to be time poor but after a few minutes of talking with them you quickly realise they are this way because they consume their time on themselves rather than being generous to others. For example, how much time do you spend watching television, youtube or play games on your phone? Could you cut out just one of these activities and suddenly be in a position to bless others with your time?

For me, there is no faster way to destroy an evening out then when someone pulls out a calculator app to work out how much they should pay. It gets even worse when they ask the waiter for a menu so they can get their numbers down to the cent. But isn’t this fair? What’s the problem with that?

The real enemy of being generous is people who live a life of being fair. Being fair sounds so good until you realise that it removes all generosity. You see, generosity isn’t about being fair, in fact, it’s the polar opposite. Being generous is going above and beyond fair just because you want to bless someone else.

True generosity also means there are no strings attached. I know some people who act like they are being generous but carry a mental ledger of whom owes what to whom. This isn’t about being generous at all…..it’s about balancing the scales so everything is fair…..it’s also a lot how politicians behave.

I knew a couple that would literally keep track of who spent what amount of money on themselves so they could balance everything up. The wife bought some new clothes so the husband could then spend money on some technical gadget. Rather than being happy for the other person’s purchases they had a desire to balance the ledger…..sadly, the relationship broke apart.

One of the sad things about Christmas is it can dissolve into a time of obligations. I must buy a present for so-and-so because that’s what’s expected. The levels of expectations rise up and is one of the contributing factors for why Christmas is not very “merry” for many people.

The fastest way to put a smile on your face is to decide to be generous with your giving…..this doesn’t necessarily mean more money. It could be you spend the time making something. I’ve kept every birthday, Christmas and Father’s Day card that my kids have ever made for me.…..they are more precious than anything Hallmark could have produced. Maybe it’s time you dusted off your artistic skills?

If you ever want to do a “generosity health check” then do something for someone else where there is no possible way you can get anything in return. Don’t be a miser, go way over the top. Buy the groceries of the person in front of you at the store, give your favourite coat to a homeless person, pay for the McDonald’s of the car behind you in the drive through, anonymously donate money to a worthy cause, help a stranger with a broken down car or spend an afternoon with a nephew or niece.

One of the most amazing things about being generous is when you do so you will actually get more from the act then the person you are being generous to. It’s like magic! The feelings of well-being and happiness that envelopes you are worth every penny, second or effort the deed required. It’s only a few weeks until Christmas, decide to bring joy into the lives of those around you by being generous and receive a great gift in return……love.

We can all be a littler more generous.....we just need to practice harder.

Greenberg and Lieberman

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Being Focused

Being Focused

One of the biggest challenges many businesses face is deciding which opportunities they should focus on and which they should leave for another day. It’s so easy to become seduced by one opportunity after another, only to find that none of them are concluded and their value isn’t realised.

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Over the years, I’ve watched a number of businesses go bankrupt by mismanaging opportunities and becoming confused over what they should be working on. The owners didn’t make the difficult decisions to shelve a great idea, not do some development or say no to a fantastic potential partnership.

If you find yourself surrounded by opportunities and wondering which one you should pursue then there are a number of questions that you may wish to ask yourself. By addressing these questions then you’re very likely to gain a clarity to your thinking that will help you make wiser decisions.

Why am I in business?

This may seem obvious but it really gets down to the bedrock of why you’re doing what you’re doing. Some people get into business because they want to make money, others for the lifestyle and yet other individuals just want to create something. There are innumerable reasons for starting a business and the great majority of them are very personal.

Let’s imagine you enjoy the lifestyle provided by your business, then selecting opportunities that will take up all of your time is probably not a good option. Everyone assumes that all businesses need to grow….this is not always true and asking this question will help you come to grips with what you really want.

What does the business do?

Working out what you are good at and where you add value for clients is critical to understanding where your focus should be. Believe or not, your business can’t do everything.

I’ve walked away from a lot of deals because they would be a distraction to our primary business of monetising domain name traffic. I’ve had untold numbers of people approach me about partnering with them to develop an awesome domain but in the end, I inevitably way no. Developing websites just aren’t our thing right now….they may be in the future but not now.

So many domain owners believe they are domain managers, traffic monetisers, stock item salespersons and are awesome at selling their premium domains. Their time is soaked up with a multitude of tasks and although they are busy they really aren’t focused on what they are good at. To be quite honest with you, each of those tasks require specialised skills and to expect yourself to do all of them well is nigh impossible.

Where’s your business going?

Sounds pretty obvious but thinking about where you would like to be in the future is an important consideration that will have a direct impact on the opportunities you pursue. If you plan on becoming a domain monetisation specialist then you really have to ask yourself why you’re brokering domains.

Having a clear picture of what your business will look like in the future is the only way I know that will allow me to build towards that future. By not having a vision for your business would be like building a house without a set of plans.

Of course, there is only one thing worse then a lot of opportunities…..and that’s no opportunities. If this is your case then you have a very different kind of problem to solve and my guess is you’ll need to address it very quickly or you’ll end up burning a lot of cash.

So this past couple of weeks I’ve been working like mad expanding one of our product lines. It fits in with the three questions but even still my business partner wisely insisted that we do a check against the third question. This has brought crystal clear clarity to the project that would have otherwise not been evident.

These questions have really helped me stay focused on what we do at ParkLogic and I hope they can help you in your own decision making. I look forward to catching up with you all at NamesCon in Vegas.

Greenberg and Lieberman

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