Domain Traffic Predicts Google Result

Domain Traffic Predicts Google Result

I’ve been wanting to write this article for a while now but I’ve been flat out building a new ParkLogic system. Back on the 12th of October I wrote an article on the fact that I believed that domains could be used to predict a large chunk of Google’s quarterly results. Guess what! I was right!

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For those of you that would like to read the previous articles these can be found at:

The Percentage of Advertising Revenues Google Pays Domainsers

Predicting Google's Quarterly Domainer Payout

In my analysis, I predicted Google’s Traffic Acquisition Cost to Network Members (of which the domain channel is a part) would be flat for Q3. I even presented the following chart predicting this number.

Prediction of Google Results

After reviewing the results presented by the Google quarterly earnings report the actual Traffic Acquisition Cost moved from 21.1% to 21.3% (ie. almost flat). This number can be seen in the below chart from the Google quarterly earnings announcement.

Google Results

What this suggests is domain data can potentially be used as a predictor of a major part of Google’s earnings PRIOR to any announcements that they may make to the market.

A word of caution. Since Google’s results are in the billions and slight perturbations in some of the numbers used to calculate the result may result in a large swing in the prediction. With any luck, I can deal with most of these factors but more time is required to determine whether the prophetic nature of domain traffic can be consistently and accurately applied to Google’s earnings call prior to the call itself.

So don’t speed-dial your broker as yet and remember that this series of articles is as much about proving how valuable domain traffic is as about playing the stock market!

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Comments

vanclute on 13 December 2016

I would be quite intrigued to see what other aspects of the public stock markets (or any other tradable market) might be able to be informed by domain traffic. Google is of course the most direct relationship, but what tertiary relationships might be able to be ferreted out from this? Enquiring minds!

I would be quite intrigued to see what other aspects of the public stock markets (or any other tradable market) might be able to be informed by domain traffic. Google is of course the most direct relationship, but what tertiary relationships might be able to be ferreted out from this? Enquiring minds!
mgilmour on 13 December 2016

I think there are a lot of things that can be derived from domain traffic. The reason being is that domain traffic represents user behaviour.

I think there are a lot of things that can be derived from domain traffic. The reason being is that domain traffic represents user behaviour.
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