Is the Global Economy About To Crash?

Is the Global Economy About To Crash?

I watched the recent debate between presidential hopefuls Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Since I live Australia, you may ask why? I wanted to see whether either of the two candidates really seemed to understand the economic knife edge the world is currently balanced upon. Sadly, I was disappointed in what both of them had to say.

Other than a number of sound-bites there was nothing on issues such as China’s burgeoning debt Crisis and the impact this will have on the global economy.

Back on the 11th May 2016 the Financial times reported the Chinese Communist party’s flagship newspaper, the People’s Daily, published a front-page interview with an “authoritative figure” who warned that the country’s soaring debt levels could lead to “systemic financial risks”. This doesn't sound good....

On the 29th August the Australian Financial Review reported that prominent investor, George Soros, as seeing an “Eerie resemblance between conditions in China now and those in the US leading up to the financial crisis in 2008.” Remember, Mr Soros was the man that broke the bank of England in one of his currency trades.

...
Continue reading
1232 Hits

How Will a Chinese Economic Hard Landing Impact Domain Investors?

How Will a Chinese Economic Hard Landing Impact Domain Investors?

I’ve taken a great deal of interest in the Chinese economy of late and I’ve written a number of articles that outline how everything is not so good in the dragon nation. Debt continues to skyrocket, GDP is levelling off and there appears to be stockpiles of commodities that are unused. So how is this all going to impact domain investors?

Escrow.com

CNBC published an article, “Moody’s raises worries over China loans as Communist party paper calls debt load ‘original sin’”. Within the article, influential investors Kyle Bass and George Soros warn of a credit crisis in China, with Bass noting the presence of “ticking time bombs” in China’s banking system.

What really struck me about the article was the second video where an independent economist, Andy Xie, suggests that China’s real bad loan situation is closer to 20% and not the 1.5% being reported. He then went on to say that over half the loans relate to property and that all across the country buildings empty and that they are being traded like gambling chips. Everyone is hoping that someone else will pay more for the assets.

China Non-performing loans

...
Continue reading
1599 Hits

Part 3 - How A Decline in the Chinese Economy Will Impact Domains

Part 3 - How A Decline in the Chinese Economy Will Impact Domains

This is the third part in a series that examines domains and the Chinese economy. The first two parts can be viewd by clicking on the following links: Part 1      Part 2

The biggest concern with a Chinese economic downturn is the impact that it will have on the rest of the world. As companies reduce spending and hunker down during the economic storm domain valuations will be the recipient of a perfect storm of less demand and massively greater supply courtesy of the new gTLDs.

Escrow.com

If you are considering an offer right now on a domain, then my advice would be to take it, as I believe we will be heading into some rough water over the next couple of years. I’ve never regretted having cash in the bank and if I’m right, then there’s going to be some real bargains available in the not too distant future.

The biggest concern for me is the value of domain traffic in a financial crisis. Users will still have value but I’m concerned whether the value will be fully realised by domain investors in a downturn.

...
Tags:
Continue reading
1481 Hits

Part 2 – How China’s Looming Debt Crisis Will Impact Domains

Part 2 – How China’s Looming Debt Crisis Will Impact Domains

This is the second article in the series on China. Click here for part 1.

Off the back of all of the China debt crisis, what’s going on in the domain industry? For the past year many western domain investors have been scratching their heads as they tried to work out why the Chinese were buying up all of the 4 letter/number domains.

Escrow.com

Other than a few reasons which were largely due to mysticism and numerology there was no sustainable underpinning of the value of many of these domains. In short, it was spectulation run mad that rapidly pushed up the prices.

Despite the underlying values being questionable there has been a rush by many western domain speculators to register short character domains. The total goal was to then sell these domains to Chinese investors for inflated prices. While some people have made money, many are in the process of losing their shirt as the giant global ponzi scheme comes crashing down.

...
Tags:
Continue reading
1641 Hits

Part 1 – How China’s Looming Debt Crisis Will Impact Domains

Part 1 – How China’s Looming Debt Crisis Will Impact Domains

I’ve been concerned about China’s debt levels for quite some time and the impact that a Chinese economic meltdown may have on the domain industry. After returning from a week’s vacation I decided that it was time to start digging into the data and piecing together a number of anecdotal data points.

Escrow.com

It didn’t take long to discover that just about every major investment media source is concerned about China’s debt problems. Back in October 2015, The Economist had a little chart with the title, “Still Bingeing”, that outlined China’s total debt as a % of GDP. The chart can be viewed below

China bingeing on debt

On the 22nd Feb, Bloomberg News had a headline announcing that China’s debt will peak at 283% of GDP in 2019. To put this into perspective, the USA debt to GDP ratio is 104%.

...
Tags:
Continue reading
2030 Hits