New gTLDs - It's not if, it's when

New gTLDs - It's not if, it's when

A number of domain owners have come to the misconception that I don’t believe in the new gTLDs. This couldn’t be further from the truth! What I’m wrestling with is the when not the if the new gTLDs take-off.

In the last 12 months there has been a lot of growth off a small base with the new gTLDs. According to ntldstats the numbers have grown from around 3.6m to just over 10m so far this year. This is around 270% growth this year (off a small number compared to the incumbents) and pretty good when you consider it wasn’t long ago when there were none. Yes, I know these numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt.....but let's ignore that for the time being.

Escrow.com

The number one problem for the new gTLDs isn’t the initial flurry of sales and trying to hit yet another quarterly target. The problem is getting accepted by society as a means to navigate the Internet. Most people have been scripted to automatically type in .com or their ccTLD extension. To change this behaviour is going to take time.

You also can’t compare the new gTLDs to the early days of .com. They’re completely different. When .com was released, it and a handful of other extensions were all that you could get. It was a case of a limited supply and a massive latent demand fueled by billions of dollars of investor funds and media hype.

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.Club: 1 Million Registrations by Year 1, 5 Million by Year 5

.Club: 1 Million Registrations by Year 1, 5 Million by Year 5

OK, I've seen this posted around the different forums that .club is going to make it really, really big but I personally believe that 1 million registrations by the end of the first years is a big stretch. What's crazy is that they could have said 200,000 and everyone would have thought that was a lot of domains. If they pass the 200,000 mark they will look like heroes but now they've set a bar so high that it's going to be tough to reach.

Don't get me wrong....I wish them all the best. I wear their polo shirt all the time....it's really comfortable. :-) The problem that I see with many of these new extensions is that many of them have had to get investors to "drink the kool-aid" and this has set them up to fail. I personally think that about 98% of them will go down and be snapped up by some of the more successful ones....by hey, it's a gamble and people with a lot of money seem to like doing it.

As for me, I'm going to stick with .com and some of the ccTLDs as I know for sure that they're not going to vanish in a hurry.

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